It
is exactly three years since the referendum. Three years since the slim 52/48 margin
decided the vote for the UK in favour of leaving the EU …
It really feels as though the world
is rapidly redefining itself at the moment. And it’s changing in a way which my
younger self is finding hard to comprehend. I say ‘younger self’ because I’m
increasingly realising how ossified my sense of optimism has been throughout
the course of the last two and a half decades, I feel like Rumpelstiltskin
waking up – or is it simply that this extreme pendulum swing since 23 June 2016
has happened far faster than anyone would have thought reasonably possible only
a short time ago?
What has happened to that sense of
hope and optimism which seemed so ripe with potential at the close of the
twentieth century? Where are our present day Nelson Mandelas (truth and reconciliation), our Václav Havels (living in truth), our Aung San Suu Kyis (freedom from fear)?
– Now we have Putin, Trump, Xi, Bolsonaro, Erdogan, Orban. And, even more unfathomably,
Aung San Suu Kyi has of her own accord now joined their ranks! … It’s the new
norm. Politics by personality cult. Populism providing sustenance for a rising
sense of blinkered nationalism. Globalisation on the brink of imploding, and globalism
about to atomise itself.
For a long time a lot of people I
know here in the UK bemoaned our identikit plastic politicians, groaning at the
lack of choice and the apparent inevitability of the outcomes of our elections.
Our major political parties all seemed intent on occupying a safe middle
ground, seemingly for the sake of their own careers first and foremost, massively
fiddling their expense claims as a requisite perk of the job. But, bizarrely, that
galling status quo now seems like some strange lost halcyon era.
A friend and I were discussing the
current deepening division which is developing in the UK. Thinking about the
gap that’s only widening and getting wider whilst the uncertainties of our nation’s
situation remain unresolved, wondering how this crisis has ostensibly
manifested itself out of nowhere. I’m sure the reason it all seems so obscure
is because it’s not such a simple thing in and of itself. It’s more complex and
probably runs far deeper than we can readily perceive on the day-to-day surface
of things. I’m sure it’s due to a combination of factors.
The economic disparities within society
at large sit at the root of all of this in the shape of the growing distance
between those who have and those who have not. The divide between the wealthy
and the poor is deepening perhaps because the system itself is not
self-sustaining. Continual growth is probably an unrealistic and impossible
aim, but rather than believing boom and bust is a natural, self-regenerating
cycle, can we not seek to realign our society to different aims? – New Zealand is trying to do just that – This though is perhaps an eternally difficult
circle to square. It seems as though human nature will always part between two
extremes, and there will be those who will always want and seek to steer things
off a middle way. How to improve upon this self-confounding conundrum? – I’ve
no idea what to suggest.
The political ideologies which
overlie our economic and social systems are a significant factor, simultaneously
driving and hindering these changes. A quaquaversal conundrum at the core. The
fact that so much is now in direct contention with itself within our Government,
within Parliament, and even within the main political parties themselves,
suggests that we are perhaps at a point of genuine transformation – surely
whatever comes of this, no matter how bad or divisive it might get – change is now
genuinely possible. But how are we to gauge the magnitude of what could as opposed to what should, or more importantly, what will happen?
I can’t help feeling that our
collective discontent and antagonism is only going to grow over the next few
months (or even years), fuelled by the deracinated ‘democracy’ of social media,
egged on by the echo chambers of the mainstream-media-manipulated bubbles in
which we are all cocooned – but how will this rising discontent eventually
manifest itself? – Are we headed for discontent on a par with the Poll Tax riots, the Miners’ Strike, the anarchy of August 2011? – Or are we headed for a
General Strike, an economy in free fall or meltdown? – The break-up of the
United Kingdom? – Or will we see a slow emergence of a ‘Brexit Spring’ whereby
some sort of social rising occurs which galvanises us all and demands a
revolution in our political system, throwing out the two party, ‘first-past-the-post’
system which has hitherto prevailed for so long?
Whatever happens I think one thing
is for sure – it won’t be quite what any of us want. More likely than not, we
are all destined to have our expectations disappointed. Whatever compromise is
arrived at – it won’t be a consensus. It’ll be a fudge made to seem like a
consensus. But as ever, some of us will win (probably a few), some of us will
lose (probably quite a few) – and in the long term it will only serve to be a
massive missed opportunity.
If the systemic trend of rising
nationalism is a response to the increasing imbalances of capitalist globalisation
over recent decades, what will be the eventual outcome? – If nationalism means
this world system is no longer sustainable and it really does begin to
breakdown, what do we think might reasonably replace it? – Or is it too big to
fail?
I have no idea. I can’t even begin
to fathom it. But neither can I foresee it playing out without some recourse to
violence somewhere along the way – small scale and/or potentially large scale.
From civil disobedience and rioting within our own borders (stemming from
social and economic discontent), to full scale military conflicts between
nations (from the tensions of rising nationalism, punitive tariffs and petty trade
wars). I hope I am proved wrong, but it all seems possible, and most scarily of
all it maybe even seems to be becoming increasingly inevitable as each day
passes with all of these uncertainties perpetually hanging over us, unresolved.
What I deplore and despair of the
most is the absolute mindless stupidity of it all. Particularly in the UK the
rising xenophobia and increasingly overt racism, made all the more shocking for
its official endorsement in the form of the Government’s repugnant and bluntly
implemented “hostile environment” policy, which is demonstrably aimed far wider
than simply targeting illegal immigrants. None of this needs to happen. If only we could dispense with our partisan
self-interest (for we are all, wittingly and unwittingly, complicit) and focus ourselves
instead on the greater whole and the greater good. We’re painting ourselves
into an ever diminishing corner. But sadly I suspect no one who has any kind of
clout in these machinations is truly interested in finding an equilibrium which
is the most optimum for all of us; there are too many petty agendas constantly
in play. Too many pockets to line, too many nests to feather. Too many people
to keep down and keep in their place. And too many of us all too willing to play
along, willingly hoodwinking ourselves, swallowing the panacea, or alternatively
raging against the machine in a way which is simply self-detrimental or playing
straight into the hands of those manipulating the odds. United we are corralled,
but divided we stand. Milksops or Militants. Milkshakes or Molotov cocktails. It’s
all an almighty mess.
No matter how much I think about
it, no matter how much I talk about it with family and friends, people on both
sides of the present divide – I can’t see an exit. We seem to be oscillating
unendingly between tragedy and farce. If ‘all the world is a stage’, then
clearly we are stuck firmly in the theatre of the absurd. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose (the more it changes, the
more it's the same thing) – the dissident-playwright-turned-politician, Václav Havel’s alter ego, Ferdinand Vaněk, was right, “It’s all fucked up.”